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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability afforded by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from American administration follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.