🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing positions."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."